Republican primary voters are not backing away from their desire to have former President Donald Trump lead the GOP 2024 ticket, likely setting up a replay of the 2020 race.
Exclusive polling on the race from Zogby Analytics shows that Trump continues to outpace challengers by a wide margin. And while his popularity has popped, President Joe Biden also easily tops the 2024 Democratic primary choices.
“Is 2024 a repeat and clash of the 80-something-year-old ‘grumpy men,’ or is there new blood on the horizon? Alas, the data points to it’s probably going to be Trump and Biden again,” pollster Jonathan Zogby said in revealing two new Zogby Polls to Secrets.
Since he was defeated by Biden last year, Trump has led the GOP primary polls by 40 percentage points or more. And as days pass, he is signaling more that he is itching to jump into the race.
Only two others have come close to Trump in 2024 primary polls: former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. In the latest Zogby poll, Trump has the support of 59.1% of the Republican primary vote, Pence has 12%, and DeSantis has 7.4%.
Pence is working to help 2022 candidates win seats in the House and the Senate. DeSantis, meanwhile, filed papers this week to run for reelection in 2022, a sign some Florida Republicans saw as a move to take his hat out of the 2024 ring if Trump runs.
On the Democratic side, a weakened Biden leads with 40.2%. But in a sign that Democratic primary voters might be looking for an alternative, former first lady Michelle Obama is a surprising second, with 20%.
Vice President Kamala Harris is nearly an afterthought at 9.8%. Her tenure has been marked so far with key policy failures, and her personal polling has dropped substantially. Zogby took note of her poor polling and concluded, “The data will also tell you Vice President Kamala Harris will not be president in this lifetime.”
Obama, like her husband, former President Barack Obama, has remained popular in Democratic circles, and her name occasionally pops up as a contender. So far, she has brushed aside the urgings of some in her party.
Zogby, however, raised a situation in which she might step in: the absence of Biden on the ticket.
He once talked about serving only one term, and some fear he suffers from age-related cognitive decline.
“What if Biden and Trump are both declared medically unfit to run for president? That would throw both primary lists into chaos,” Zogby said.
“Who would emerge on the Republican side? The Democrats, who are experiencing an in-house brawl between moderates and progressives, would probably tear each other limb for limb. At that point, you might hear, ‘Paging Mrs. Obama, paging Mrs. Obama, is anyone home? Please save our party!'” he added.
